Instrument № 4
Rating Goal Planner
"How many wins until I reach 1600?" Simulate the climb round by round - every win pays a little less as you rise, and the planner prices that in automatically.
Consecutive wins needed
- First win pays
- +9.6
- Last win pays
- +8.0
- Rating reached
- 1603
Same climb, different paces
What a scoring rate costs you.
Straight wins are the ceiling. Compare how the same goal stretches under realistic scoring rates - every rate below your expected score means no progress at all.
| Pace | Points / game | Games to goal | Progress per game |
|---|
The arithmetic
Why each win pays less than the last.
A win against an equal opponent at K = 20 is worth +10. But the moment you climb, the same opponent becomes easier in the system's eyes: after +50 points your expected score against them rises from 0.50 to about 0.57, and the next win pays only +8.6. This is the Elo system's built-in gravity - the planner simulates it game by game so the total is honest, not a naive ×10-per-win multiplication.
The simulation re-rates you after every game and re-reads your K-factor along the way[F1]: cross 2400 (with K = 10 following permanently), pass 30 career games, or turn 19, and the throttle changes under you. In reality FIDE settles monthly, so treat the game count as a projection, not a schedule.
Per-game gain against a fixed opponent
ΔRwin = K × (1 − E), E rising with every win
1600-beating-1600 at K = 20: +10, +9.8, +9.6, … - eleven straight wins to go from 1600 to 1700, not ten.
A scoring pace is itself a claim: sustaining 0.75 against 1600s means you are already stronger than 1600. If the plan says 40 games, the honest reading is "my true level is somewhere above my rating" - the fastest route is simply playing often.
Single games: Elo change calculator · tournament retrospectives: Performance rating calculator · the model underneath: Expected score calculator